Portfolio Strategies
Each Portfolio
Monte Carlo Scenarios
Free quarterly risk analysis challenging conventional portfolio wisdom
We analyzed five distinct portfolio strategies—each with €1,000,000—using Monte Carlo simulation, stress testing, and risk decomposition based on year-end 2025 market data. The results challenges conventional portfolio construction wisdom.
What we discovered: Portfolios with half the equity allocation can achieve lower risk through proper diversification. The secret? Combining truly uncorrelated assets like gold, REITs, and alternatives—not just adding more bonds.
Octarisk Q1 2026 Portfolio Risk Report
Comprehensive analysis comparing all five portfolios. Includes risk decomposition, diversification benefits, stress test results across four scenarios (Crisis, COVID-19, Stagflation, AI Bubble), and actionable recommendations for investors.
Key Topics:
Each portfolio represents a different investor archetype and strategic approach. Detailed reports include complete position listings, risk metrics, stress test results, and suitability assessments. Dashboard one-pagers provide quick summaries.
| Portfolio | Description | Risk Profile | Downloads |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAFEHARBOR Conservative Retiree |
Low-risk portfolio prioritizing capital preservation. 70% bond ladder across multiple maturities,
20% equities, with small gold and REIT allocations for diversification.
Best for: Retirees, risk-averse investors |
VaR: 4.6% SRRI: 4 Highest diversification benefit: 13.3% |
Full Report
Dashboard |
| TRADITIONAL Traditional 60/40 |
Standard diversified allocation: 50% global equities, 40% bonds, 10% REITs.
Critical issue: Despite "balanced" label, equities drive 85% of risk.
⚠️ Not recommended: Consider ALLSEASONS instead |
VaR: 9.9% SRRI: 6 Poor diversification: only 6.5% |
Full Report
Dashboard |
| ALLSEASONS Risk Parity Inspired |
True all-weather diversification: 30% equities, 40% bonds, 15% gold, 10% REITs, 5% Bitcoin.
Risk contributions balanced across asset classes (52%/16%/16%/15%).
✓ Recommended for genuine diversification |
VaR: 9.3% SRRI: 6 Strong diversification: 11.2% |
Full Report
Dashboard |
| GROWTH Aggressive Accumulator |
Maximum equity exposure for long-term growth: 70% global equities (heavy EM weighting),
10% corporate bonds, small Bitcoin position as tech bet.
Best for: 30+ year horizon, high risk tolerance |
VaR: 15.0% SRRI: 6-7 Low diversification: 5.2% |
Full Report
Dashboard |
| HARDASSETS Inflation Hedge |
Overweight tangible assets for inflation protection: 30% gold, 25% REITs, 35% equities,
10% Bitcoin. Zero bonds by design. Excels in stagflation scenarios.
Best for: Inflation concerns, high volatility tolerance |
VaR: 15.3% SRRI: 6-7 Moderate diversification: 6.2% |
Full Report
Dashboard |
All analysis performed using Octarisk, an open-source portfolio risk measurement framework built on GNU Octave. Methodology includes Monte Carlo simulation (50,000 scenarios), parametric stress testing, VaR decomposition, and utility-based risk assessment.
Next Report: Q2 2026 (April 2026)
Valuation Date: December 31, 2025
Report Generated: January 20, 2026